Wilson’s 84-yard TD dash against the Jets catapulted his ADP. (USAT)
Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the longer term, and also you appear to be a genius. Don’t, and also you’re painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, this is our view on 10 intriguing over/unders this week.
David Wilson’s torching of the hapless Jets Saturday gave homeowners a glimpse of a star-in-the-making. Some, including the Noise, have described him as the Chris Johnson of the NFC, a hit and miss scorer. Total touchdowns for New York’s G this season eight.5
Dalton – UNDER. I’m truly a big fan of Wilson and expect him to surpass 1,250 yards from scrimmage, however 6-8 touchdowns are a much safer wager than more. However that is an explosive again primed for a breakout.
Scott – BENEATH. Mainly I’m singing the same music that Dalton is – I’ll purchase into the Wilson breakout, however I’m not going to be aggressive with the landing projection. His scores will normally have to return from distance, and that’s a difficult thing to rely on.
Brandon – UNDERNEATH. The yards from scrimmage ought to be wholesome, but I’m below no delusions that Wilson will steal objective line touches away from Andre Brown, who was straight money money from point clean range final season – 12 objective line rush attempts, leading to eight touchdowns.
Kenbrell Thompkins, the apple of Tom Brady’s eye towards the Lions (12-eight-116), could be having probably the most worth-impacting preseason of any participant. Whole receptions for the teenager in his inaugural campaign 59.5
Scott – UNDERNEATH. Nonetheless a skeptic here; in spite of everything this is a rookie, undrafted no much less, tied to an offense identified for spreading issues out. Pass me those noise-cancelling headphones, the thrill is getting too loud for me.
Brandon – OVER. I do not assume he’ll go over by a lot, but you work that there’ll be round four hundred receptions distributed round between Pats ability position gamers, and Thompkins should determine closely into that mix. To go over, he must common solely 3.75 catches per sport, which I believe he can do.
Andy – OVER, probably comfortably. At this level, it isn’t a stretch to assume he can strategy Brandon Lloyd’s 2012 manufacturing (74-911-four). I was a skeptic, but the numbers preserve rolling in.
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It’s shocking Matthew Stafford saved arm in socket last year after setting an NFL report for makes an attempt in a season (727). Nonetheless, his fantasy effort was soured by misfires and close calls, evident in his 20 passing TDs. Aerial strikes in the followup 31.5
Brandon – BELOW. I’ve operated this preseason with the expectation that Stafford will finish midway between his TD move totals of the past two seasons, which puts my projection at 30.5. I count on Stafford to rebound properly in ’13, particularly with the addition of Reggie Bush, but 32-plus TDs is a really big quantity, one that usually solely three-4 QBs reach, when you look at the breakdown over the previous decade.
Andy – This can be a robust quantity.. almost too close to call. I’m gonna go BENEATH, however by maybe only one or two, assuming good well being. We’re basically requiring Stafford to play 15-16 video games (and be nice) if he’ll prime 30 TDs; only 5 QBs obtained there in 2012.
Brad – OVER. Stafford was repeatedly dealt seven-deuce off-go well with final 12 months. Megatron was tackled a ridiculous amount of occasions inside the 5, finish-zone connections have been usually dropped and quite a few TDs had been known as back. Contemplating he is just a yr removed from a forty one-TD campaign and after throwing 1,390 passes the previous two years, his luck is certain to change. Roughly 33-36 TDs are attainable.
Once once more Jermichael Finley is having the greatest coaching camp of any participant within the history of professional football. Though completely unreliable a season ago scoring simply two touchdowns, he stays excessive on proprietor wishlists. TDs for the TE this 12 months 6.5
Andy – OVER, please. Finley caught a career-high 61 balls final season, which we used to consider first rate for a decent end. I problem you to find anyone affiliated with Green Bay who’s had a detrimental phrase to say about Finley’s camp. With Jennings gone and Jordy gimpy, I’m anticipating a pleasant 12 months from Jermichael.
Brad – BENEATH. If you learn the propaganda coming out of Inexperienced Bay, Finley is about to make Jimmy Graham completely obsolete. The hype is typical. Yearly it seems, the tight finish is destined to shatter information, heal the sick and save the world. Nonetheless, in 5 years he’s eclipsed the above quantity once. With Jordy Nelson possible for Week 1 and Eddie Lacy now spearheading a revamped floor sport, he’s certain to finish in the 4-6 vary.
Dalton – OVER. I am conscious I may end up trying like a sucker for buying into Finley’s newest hype, but the tight finish surpassed this number two years in the past, and that was before the light bulb supposedly went on. At 6-5, 250, he definitely has the scale to be utilized more inside the purple zone.
The Cardinals offensive line suffered a catastrophic blow over the weekend shedding prized rookie Jonathan Cooper to a broken leg. Keeping his loss in mind, Rashard Mendenhall whole yards this season 1099.5
Brad – OVER. Mendy’s knee “loosening” is a bit unnerving and the lack of Cooper smarts, but when he can hold up over a minimum of thirteen games, he should surpass the 1,100 total yard mark. Alphonso Smith and Stepfan Taylor pose little menace. Expect right around 16-19 touches per sport for the veteran.
Dalton – BELOW. I know he tasks because the clear feature back in Arizona, but I can’t see him holding up physically, and the sledding shall be powerful working behind that offensive line and in that division filled with sturdy defensive teams.
Scott – BELOW. I’ve seen Mendenhall break too many instances prior to now, and this offensive line is as soon as once more a joke with the Cooper loss.
Man, JaMarcus Russell dropped some critical lbs. (USAT)
Terrelle Pryor, who might sew up the Raiders beginning QB gig with a robust effort Thursday in opposition to Seattle, mixed passing/rushing yards this season 2,999.5
Dalton – UNDERNEATH. That sounds about proper if he can play the entire season, however any QB behind Oakland’s offensive line goes to have serious bother staying wholesome. It’s a fairly ugly state of affairs.
Scott – UNDER is the decision as a result of I anticipate Matt Flynn to get some motion, too. However on a per-game foundation, the run-completely satisfied Pryor has an excellent likelihood to be a gentle QB2. It isn’t going to be fairly, but belief the algebra. Rushing production actually pays the payments.
Brandon – UNDERNEATH. It will be ugly in Oakland this season, and when a crew is down within the dumps, the QB often pays the worth. So, to count on Pryor to play a full season and, say, rush for 600 yards and throw for another 2,four hundred (common of 150 per sport) is a bit presumptuous given the sorry state of the Raiders. Matt Flynn will seemingly figure into the combination, and I would not be surprised if we see a full-blown QB carousel right here.
Brad – OVER. Dalton, Scott, Brandon, you guys do notice the Raiders will likely be enjoying from behind in every game this 12 months. Plus the offensive line is in shambles, that means Pryor will break contain typically. Rubbish. Time. All-Star. #TeamHuevos
With Arian Foster in street garments, Ben Tate, arguably probably the most sought after handcuff in drafts this 12 months, ran roughshod over the Saints, collecting seventy four yards and a TD on eleven carries. Average touches per sport this year for the backup 13.5
Scott – I’m going OVER on any Tate proud as a result of I see numerous red flags on Foster 2013. Workload, declining efficiency, summer season aches and pains, there’s a lot to fret about.
Brandon – BENEATH. If Foster is healthy, Tate’s not going to make this number – he’d have to complete with 224-plus touches over a 16 video games to eclipse this mark. And I think Foster is going to be just nice. Moreover, Tate’s hardly an iron man, as he’s flirted with the questionable tag usually in his quick career.
Andy – UNDER. And I really like Tate. However he doesn’t get many targets within the passing sport, in order that’s not a path to touches for him. The one method he averages better than this quantity is that if Foster misses a number of games, and Tate offers us a couple of 20-25 carry traces.
Outside Tate, which handcuff do you value highest: Bernard Pierce, Christine Michael or Bryce Brown?
Brandon – PIERCE. I feel Michael has probably the most upside if he had been to ascend to a lead role due to an injury to Beast-Mode, but Pierce is finest positioned given each player’s present situation. Baltimore always carves out 100-one hundred thirty carries for different RBs moreover Ray Rice, and they like Pierce more than what they’ve had backing up Rice up to now, so it would not be surprising if Pierce totes it one hundred forty-one hundred fifty times in concert with Rice. That is flex enchantment.
Andy – Nicely, it’s difficult. I am unable to assure that MICHAEL can have the same week-to-week value as Brown and Pierce, while Lynch is working at full capacity. But when for some reason Beast Mode had been to malfunction, I just have zero doubt that Michael could be a star. So he is my guy. (Also, no Helu? No Bush? No Joique?)
Brad – MICHAEL. As said before, the ex-Aggie is one Marshawn Skittles disaster away from turning into a high-15 RB. His stout construct (5-foot-10, 220-pounds), unfazed angle and quick toes are admirable traits. Pound-for-pound he might simply be essentially the most gifted rusher in this yr’s rookie class.
Josh Gordon, doubtless Brandon Weeden’s weapon of choice once he serves a two-game suspension, receiving yards per game this fall seventy four.5
Andy – OVER, slightly. I like that it’s a per-sport quantity, so I haven’t got to sweat accidents. This child gave us just a few wow moments last yr, and his targets should pattern up in year two.
Brad – OVER. Throughout a nine-recreation stretch (Weeks 5-14) last 12 months, Gordon averaged simply shy of the proposed number (seventy one.0 YPG). With a year below his belt and likely the primary possibility in an improved offense, he is definitely capable of racking seventy five yards per sport. Going as a back-end WR3, he could simply end as a mid-level WR2.
Dalton – OVER. It’s projecting a whole lot of progress, however Gordon has the expertise to do it, particularly in Norv Turner’s vertical system. Plus, this metric will not hurt him if he gets suspended once more. Severely, Gordon goes to be a lot useful in fantasy leagues after he returns in Week 3.
Fill in the Blank. Lamar Miller, who the Miami Herald believes has a number of legs up on the RB competitors on South Seaside, racks _______ yards from scrimmage, scores _______ complete touchdowns and finishes ______ in fantasy points per recreation among RBs in PPR codecs.
Brad – 1,388 yards from scrimmage, 9 complete TDs, No. 14
Dalton – 1,four hundred yards from scrimmage, 7 total TDs, No. 14
Scott – 1,319 yards from scrimmage, 7 whole TDs, No. 18.
Brandon – 1,250 yards from scrimmage, 7 complete TDs, No. 19
Andy – 1,299 yards from scrimmage and 6 complete TDs. Those numbers are per Reggie’s work. Let’s not overrate the offense too much. (I can’t rank him for PPR, because I don’t endorse PPR.)