What’s in retailer for Kaepernick’s encore? (USAT)
1. Washington Redskins 9-7
2. Dallas Cowboys 8-8
3. New York Giants 8-8
four. Philadelphia Eagles 8-8
Comments/Fantasy predictions: After the Redskins opened three-6 last yr, it appeared quite unlikely they’d be a playoff workforce, however a 7-0 finish modified every little thing. There’s no query Washington had some luck, in some way recovering a whopping sixty nine.8% of the 43 fumbles that occurred throughout its video games (H/T Chase Stuart). However they outscored their opponents by only six fewer points than the eventual Super Bowl profitable Ravens, so it’s not like they had been total flukes. I’m clearly excessive on Alfred Morris and likewise take into account Pierre Garcon a high-15 fantasy huge receiver. The largest question each for Redskins followers and fantasy house owners is the well being of RG3, who turned the primary rookie in NFL historical past to steer the league in YPA (eight.1) last season. He additionally had a league-finest 1.three INT% on dropbacks and an NFL-high 6.eight YPC mark. No team was better final yr during play motion. How Griffin performs coming off knee surgical procedure can be key. I count on this division to be extremely aggressive, with each workforce an actual risk to win it.
This run by a high schooler is pretty legit.
In case you missed part one, here’s my AFC season preview.
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Here are my ideas on Tony Romo. And it doesn’t matter what you consider him in real life terms, it’s onerous not to think about Romo underrated in fantasy circles. There’s merely zero reason Matt Ryan must be going 50 picks larger (I’d really argue there’s no cause Ryan ought to be going greater at all). My love for Romo pales in comparison to my affection for Dez Bryant. Having mentioned that, it seems to be like Bryant can be on zero of my teams this 12 months, as going working back early seems to be as important as ever. I can’t get behind DeMarco Murray, who for some motive continues to be drafted aggressively (I loved stashing Lance Dunbar, however he received hurt, so there’s no clear Dallas RB2 to roster proper now). Professional Soccer Focus graded Sean Lee because the sixth finest inside linebacker last season, when he missed 10 video games. To put this in perspective, forty eight other ILBs completed with extra snaps. He was on pace to file 155 tackles before happening. Lee is going to be an IDP monster in 2013.
If I ever get right into a excessive speed chase, I positive hope this cop isn’t the one after me.
Here are the Giants’ sack numbers from 2007-2012, respectively: fifty three (NFL-high), 42 (sixth), forty two (6th), 46 (5th), 48 (3rd) after which simply 33 (22nd) final season, once they allowed an NFL-high 8.1 YPA. I’d love to say a bounce again is in retailer, but while some improvement is inevitable, there are some red flags this unit will proceed to be a problem. FS Stevie Brown was lost for the season with a torn ACL, and query marks continue to encompass Jason Pierre-Paul’s well being. However in fantasy phrases, there’s loads to like right here, even when I believe Hakeem Nicks is getting overdrafted (take Reuben Randle a lot afterward as an alternative). Eli Manning has an enormous bounce again season, throwing for 4,500-plus yards and rewarding homeowners who wait on the quarterback place. For individuals who planned on focusing on David Wilson in their drafts this weekend, the Andre Brown harm information could truly be dangerous, as Wilson’s price tag is shooting by the roof (and Brown was likely to get harm in some unspecified time in the future anyway). Nonetheless, Wilson is worth his increasing value, as he’s one of the league’s most explosive backs who’s going to be given a heavy workload. Wilson is a borderline high-12 fantasy pick for me proper now.
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Over the Eagles’ closing 10 video games final season (proper after defensive coordinator Juan Castillo was fired), Philadelphia allowed 30.9 points-per-recreation, which might have tied for the worst mark over a full year since 2008. And if the preseason was any indication, the workforce’s D goes to be among the league’s worst as soon as once more in 2013. Nonetheless, this team has a lot upside on offense while facing a last place schedule only one 12 months faraway from being among the convention’s favorites, the Eagles have the widest vary of outcomes as any crew in soccer. Michael Vick is easily the very best upside QB not drafted inside the top-12, whereas DeSean Jackson finishes as a high-20 fantasy broad receiver, forward of Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne. Furthermore, I’d strongly think about drafting LeSean McCoy as soon as Adrian Peterson is gone. The Eagles have an underrated offensive line and may lead the NFL in dashing makes an attempt, so it is a good rebound alternative for McCoy, who led the NFL with 20 touchdowns simply two years in the past (that number fell to 5 last 12 months, and it needs to be noted he suffered a extreme concussion. But then once more, it’s straightforward to forget McCoy is younger than C.J. Spiller and only six months older than Doug Martin (H/T Nate Ravitz)). McCoy goes to have a monster 2013 season.
1. Green Bay Packers 11-5
2. Chicago Bears eight-8
three. Detroit Lions 7-9
four. Minnesota Vikings 5-11
Comments/Fantasy predictions: Aaron Rodgers is the most helpful commodity in soccer, however since QB is so deep, he’s not price taking as early as he sometimes goes in fantasy drafts. Regardless of playing simply 651 snaps last year (57 different WRs saw extra), Randall Cobb was targeted 104 instances and had the fourth-most damaged tackles among all wideouts. Elevated taking part in time will result in massive issues in 2013, when he finishes as a top-10 fantasy extensive receiver. Jermichael Finley lives as much as the preseason hype for as soon as, whereas Eddie Lacy scores double-digit touchdowns and finishes as the most priceless rookie runner.
Here’s an epic response to someone driving whereas talking on their cellphone. Courtesy of Russia, in fact.
The Bears truly had a greater point-differential than 4 division winners last season, including the Packers. The Marc Trestman hiring is a whole unknown since he hasn’t been within the NFL since 2007, however his monitor document (and training camp reviews) recommend it is going to be a positive for Chicago’s offense, particularly for Matt Forte, who’s going to be heavily involved as a receiver. He’s a prime-10 general choose on my board. Rookie Kyle Long seems to be like a direct upgrade alongside the offensive line, and fantasy homeowners have to hope Brandon Marshall’s latest concern over his offseason hip surgical procedure is overblown. Alshon Jeffery shows improvement, but a wholesome Marshall is once once more among the many league-leaders in targets.
This guy is better at his job than you or me.
The Lions have a potentially dominant front four on protection and the game’s finest wide receiver. Reggie Bush must also be an upgrade at operating back, and it’s value noting Detroit was a bit unfortunate final 12 months, as they faced a very tough schedule and went 3-8 in games decided by a landing or less and recovered simply 32.6 % of fumbles (H/T Invoice Barnwell). But the Lions’ schedule in 2013 doesn’t precisely look favorable, and this is nonetheless a defense that allowed 27.three factors-per-sport final season. And as always, it comes back to the quarterback. Matthew Stafford was the tenth most worthy fantasy QB last season despite trying 36 extra passes in a season than some other quarterback in NFL historical past while enjoying in a dome and having one of many greatest vast receivers ever at his disposal. Pointing to the various occasions his receivers had been tackled contained in the 5-yard line truly hurts his argument, as that helped Stafford one way or the other run for 4 touchdowns. He’s nonetheless simply 24 years outdated, so there’s room for development, but he has a 6.9 profession YPA. He’s on the bottom of the “Large 12” (I guess with Michael Vick’s emergence this tier could expand to thirteen now) fantasy QBs on my board. Calvin Johnson loses 250 receiving yards, however he greater than doubles final season’s TD production. Reggie Bush catches 90 passes and approaches 1,500 yards from scrimmage. He shouldn’t be lasting previous the middle of the second round of fantasy drafts (and anyone taking Mikel Leshoure over Joique Bell as his handcuff is doing it mistaken).
Here’s a Broken Nostril Prank.
The Vikings seem like the obvious crew that came out of nowhere and performed a bit over their heads to make the playoffs final season because of take a significant step back the next campaign, and that’s before considering them losing impact participant Percy Harvin (as well as Antoine Winfield, who Pro Soccer Focus graded as the perfect CB in football last 12 months). Furthermore, as superhuman as Adrian Peterson is, asking him to reproduce what he did in 2012 is just unfair. In actual fact, over the ultimate eight video games, Peterson received 6.7 YPC, whereas Christian Ponder obtained 5.four YPA. Peterson averaged a hundred sixty five.3 rushing YPG while Ponder averaged 149.zero passing YPG, they usually both totaled nine touchdowns over that span. Wow. And to suppose AP just had probably the greatest seasons by a working back in NFL history while getting back from a torn ACL. Unreal. Peterson in all probability has lower than a 50 percent chance of ending as the No. 1 fantasy back in 2013, however there’s no argument for him not to be the No. 1 pick. I preferred Greg Jennings earlier this summer but have since soured, as I don’t anticipate him to be a top-30 fantasy huge receiver. Cordarrelle Patterson is too uncooked to make a serious impression this season, however he’s a future star and somebody to target in dynasty leagues. Due to what looks like a troublesome schedule, some regression and Ponder’s extreme limitations, I took the Vikings’ Below this year.
1. Carolina Panthers 9-7
2. Atlanta Falcons 9-7 (Wild Card)
3. New Orleans Saints 9-7
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers eight-8
Comments/Fantasy predictions: The NFC South has never had a repeat winner, however that’s more of a fun truth than any cause why I selected to go off the board here. I actually think you could order this division in any approach in any way and have an affordable chance of wanting proper. But I personally like Carolina, who quietly has put collectively what may very well be a formidable entrance seven on protection. Luke Kuechly is already one of the best center linebackers within the league and must be either first or second off the board in IDP formats. Charles Johnson’s 49 QB hurries last season had been the second most among four-3 defensive ends, whereas the team’s other DE is younger and has much more upside, as Greg Hardy has set a purpose to get 50 sacks this 12 months. Carolina also used its first two picks on defensive tackles within the draft, so even with a suspect secondary, the Panthers are one in every of my favourite fantasy defenses that may even be cheap.
As for the other aspect of the ball, after deemphasizing the learn/option final year, Cam Newton was a beast, posting a 19:4 TD:turnover ratio over the final 9 video games. His dashing stats also truly increased, as he ran for 431 yards and 5 touchdowns in comparison with 310 and three over the primary seven contests. Newton is a 24-year-outdated who’s by no means missed a game with a 7.9 YPA (to associate with 1,447 speeding yards and a whopping 22 rushing scores) over two seasons within the league. He’s carried out so taking part in outdoors with a shaky offensive line and a under common receiving corps. Make no mistake, this can be a true superstar. Despite Jonathan Stewart‘s absence, DeAngelo Williams fails to score greater than 5 touchdowns and is barely price using as a FLEX (thanks to Newton and Mike Tolbert). The Panthers received their last four games last 12 months and are my favourite lengthy shot to make a Tremendous Bowl run in 2013 (I bet on them at 40/1).
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The Falcons were awfully shut to creating the Super Bowl last year, and it’s fairly attainable the workforce’s ability to win close games at a a lot higher rate than league common is extra talent than luck. But are you prepared to hear a stat that will fairly presumably blow your thoughts? Atlanta went 13-three final year, finishing with a +one hundred twenty-point differential. They outgained their opponents by fifty seven yards. In complete. 57! It’s onerous not to love the Falcons skill position players, however their protection is questionable, and an already common offensive line dropping RT Mike Johnson for the season sure doesn’t help. The crew will also should cope with going through a schedule primarily based off being the conference’s No. 1 seed. Steven Jackson is getting drafted far too excessive for my style. While I get the argument for his improved setting, I just don’t want to bet on a working back approaching 2,500 career rushing makes an attempt who’s averaged 5.2 touchdowns over the previous six seasons.
Here’s a reasonably decent “playing useless” prank on a quarterback.
The Saints (just like the Eagles) have a variety of possible outcomes. They’re only one season removed from dropping 32 points on the street in opposition to arguably the league’s prime defense in San Francisco in a slender loss within the playoffs (New Orleans would have been massive favorites within the NFC Championship had this not happened). However then bounty-gate occurred, and the Saints’ protection final 12 months was about as unhealthy as it will get, as they allowed NFL-highs in both YPA (eight.1) and YPC (5.2), which is pretty robust to do. Sean Payton’s return should assist, however it’s not like offense was the crew’s downside final season. I’m on board with Jimmy Graham being a high-15 pick, but I’m certain Marques Colston finally ends up on none of my fantasy teams. New Orleans’ poor defense hurts Saints followers, but it helps Drew Brees’ fantasy house owners.
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Although I’m placing the Buccaneers ending last here, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if they really gained this division. The protection seems sneaky good, as Gerald McCoy has developed right into a beast (between the No. 2 and No. 3 picks within the 2010 draft, which DT would you favor transferring ahead: Ndamukong Suh or McCoy? The previous is healthier towards the move, while the latter is FAR superior against the run. It’s a really interesting debate right now, and I’d most likely want either over that 12 months’s No. 1 decide). Talking of run protection, the Bucs did the unthinkable, going from the league’s worst run protection in 2011 (5.0 YPC) to one of the best in 2012 (three.5), and don’t think McCoy enjoying 10 extra video games didn’t have quite a bit to do with it. And we haven’t even started to debate the enhancements within the secondary, as robust safety Mark Barron should enhance in year two, they usually added free security Dashon Goldson and corner Darrelle Revis through free company, the latter with the upside to be a high-three defensive player should he return even close to full power.
On offense, not solely does the trio of Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams look good, but it surely’s value noting simply how completely different this offense was once their high-priced guards went down with injury final yr. Unfortunately, Carl Nicks is dealing with a staph an infection that has his future trying murky. And maintaining with my QB obsessed theme, Tampa Bay goes only so far as Josh Freeman, who was truly second in yards per completion final 12 months, will take them. Over his first 13 video games final season, Freeman posted a 25:8 TD:INT ratio. Over the ultimate three (together with going through a traditionally dangerous Saints secondary), he posted a 2:9 TD:INT ratio. He actually struggles when facing strain, so the Nicks well being scenario is large. Doug Martin will live as much as the fantasy hype, whereas Vincent Jackson (who by some means scored eight touchdowns final year despite seeing zero targets contained in the five and just three inside the 10) remains maddeningly inconsistent on every week-to-week basis.
1. San Francisco 49ers 11-5
2. Seattle Seahawks eleven-5 (Wild Card)
three. St. Louis Rams 7-9
four. Arizona Cardinals 5-11
Comments/Fantasy predictions: The Packers aren’t far behind, but for my part, the two greatest groups in the NFC (which has shortly grow to be far superior to the AFC) are both in the West. The only motive I give the 49ers the slight edge right here is because it looks as if their hardest opponents mostly come at house, as that is just a scheduling subject. The Niners seem to have the league’s best offensive line entering 2013, and Phil Dawson must be an enormous upgrade over what David Akers did last year, while Andy Lee is adding a “knuckle punt.” It’s pretty loopy Aldon Smith had 19.5 sacks over thirteen video games final season, and then didn’t report another over his last six contests. Clearly, Justin Smith’s harm had a lot to do with it, however Aldon also was playing at far lower than 100%, at the least SF followers and potential IDP homeowners hope so. Vernon Davis finishes because the No. 2 fantasy tight end, whereas Quinton Patton and Vance McDonald ought to be stashed in dynasty leagues. Frank Gore gets hurt, and Kendall Hunter turns into a monster consequently.
Here are some Colin Kaepernick (who shall be a prime-5 fantasy QB) stats: As a starter, Kaepernick led your entire NFL in Total QBR from inside the pocket, an indication he wasn’t overly reliant on the learn/choice. He was the only participant to rank within the top-three in QBR on both passing and rushing plays. Kaepernick also led the NFL in AIR YPA by a large margin. His 181 dashing yards in the divisional round had been the most in NFL historical past by a quarterback. For what it’s worth (in all probability nothing), Kaepnerick scored a 37 on the Wonderlic, which was greater than Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Brett Favre. Over his closing six games last 12 months, Kaepernick confronted 5 playoff teams that had a combined 57-23 file, and the opposite was an Arizona team that held opposing passers to an NFL-low 71.2 QB Ranking. Throughout this span, Kaepernick received 9.1 YPA with a 14:four TD:turnover ratio. The loss of Michael Crabtree is important, but Kaepernick has the expertise to beat it.
Here’s an elephant attacking a safari Jeep.
The Seahawks had a dominant defense final yr, allowing simply 6.2 YPA and a 71.eight QB Score with an NFL-low 15.3 PPG (practically two factors decrease than the next best). DE Chris Clemons suffered a torn ACL in the crew’s playoff win over the Redskins, but Seattle added Michael Bennett (who ranked seventh final yr among all defensive ends in keeping with PFF) and Antoine Winfield, who Pro Soccer Focus graded as the perfect CB in football last yr, both on the cheap in the course of the offseason. Bruce Irvin’s ceiling remains high as nicely. The lack of Percy Harvin hurts, but he was more of a luxury than a necessity. Despite the Seahawks working the ball more than any workforce in soccer last season (and making an attempt fewer passes than any other as properly), Russell Wilson must be handled as a top-seven fantasy QB at minimum.
Wilson is coming off a rookie season wherein he produced an 8.7 YPA with a 24:5 TD:INT ratio over his remaining thirteen video games (together with the playoffs). This isn’t picking an arbitrary finish point either, because the Seahawks decided to take the training wheels off their rookie after their Week eleven bye, when Seattle increased its use of the learn/option (and gave Wilson a lot more accountability). Over Wilson’s remaining eight video games (once more, together with the playoffs, which greatest reveals how a group truly views its gamers), he rushed for 424 yards and 5 touchdowns (whereas getting 7.4 YPC). He’s a particular expertise who’s only going to get better throughout 12 months two in the league. Golden Tate, who had the third most damaged tackles among broad receivers last yr despite seeing restricted snaps, finishes as a prime-25 fantasy WR, forward of Mike Wallace. Christine Michael is perhaps my favourite dynasty goal. He seems like a future star and is in a system set up for fulfillment for a few years to return (and Marshawn Lynch might stroll after 2013). If Lynch had been to suffer an injury in 2012, Michael is among the many short listing of backup RBs who could then be the kind of participant who wins your league for you.
Here’s FAU spiking the ball on fourth down.
The Rams someway went 2-1-1 in opposition to the 49ers and Seahawks who in any other case went 21-7 last season, but this can be a team on the upswing simply saddled by a ridiculously robust division. The truth is, after adjusting for SOS, all 4 NFC West defenses had been top-six against the go in 2012. Chris Long led the NFL with 55 QB hurries last year, and the team added left sort out Jake Long by way of free agency throughout the offseason. Daryl Richardson finishes with extra fantasy worth than both DeMarco Murray and Darren McFadden, while Chris Givens easily outscores Tavon Austin. Givens, who had 5 straight games with 50+ yard catches as a rookie last season, goes down as among the best values among all fantasy broad receivers. Austin makes a big impact on particular groups, and Jared Cook is another potential improve in the passing game, so it’s time for Sam Bradford to sink-or-swim, as there will no longer be any excuses if he fails to impress. The Rams are likely to be a significantly better soccer team than their remaining record indicates.
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As talked about earlier, the Cardinals allowed the fewest YPA last season, and sometimes an upgrade from the worst QB situation within the NFL to round league common can have a much more dramatic effect than expected. Carson Palmer, who just threw for more than four,000 yards in solely 15 video games for a dysfunctional Raiders franchise, ought to thrive joining a Bruce Arians led Arizona team with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts as receiving options. It’s just too dangerous the team’s already greatest drawback (the offensive line) lost G Jonathan Cooper, who was the seventh total pick, to a season-ending broken leg. However, Fitzgerald goes again to being among the many top tier fantasy WRs, while Michael Floyd justifies being a well-liked sleeper target. But Rashard Mendenhall disappoints (I’d personally draft Ben Tate over him), as no one emerges as a reliable weekly fantasy starter among the Cardinals backfield.